Rajya Sabha Elections: Navigating Political Challenges in 2024

The Rajya Sabha elections 2024 are set to present significant challenges for the BJP government as the Parliament session kicks off on July 22nd. Since 2020, detailed series have been crafted on these biennial elections, where typically 50-60 seats become vacant. This year’s session is crucial for Narendra Modi’s third government, involving the presentation and passage of the budget, alongside 77 amendments to existing laws. Additionally, there is anticipation of new bills, although specifics remain undisclosed.

The Composition of Rajya Sabha

The Rajya Sabha, with a full strength of 245 members, currently has 19 vacancies. Recently, four nominated members—Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani—retired, all of whom were BJP supporters. For a majority in Rajya Sabha, 114 members are required, but the NDA currently has only 101 members, with BJP holding 86 seats, four of which will soon retire. In contrast, the India Alliance has 87 members, with 29 neutral members posing a significant challenge.

Opposition and Neutral Members

The Congress, the main opposition party, has 26 members, soon to be 27 with an additional seat from Telangana. Notably, the four recently retired nominated members may be re-nominated, particularly Mahesh Jethmalani, known for his legal expertise and support for the government. The Rajya Sabha also includes 12 nominated members, seven of whom are currently neutral but could be swayed by the government to support its bills.

Recent Vacancies and Future Elections

Out of the 19 vacancies, 11 arose recently due to members being elected to the assembly, with two each from Assam, Bihar, and Maharashtra. Additionally, the seats of Piyush Goyal, Dharminder Pradhan, and Purushottam Rupala are now vacant. Harsh Kumar Keshavrao, an MP, also resigned, adding to the vacancies. However, elections for these 11 seats are unlikely to happen before the parliamentary session starts on July 22nd due to the time-consuming process of nominations and voting.

Political Alignments and Potential Support

The BJP has 86 members in Rajya Sabha, Congress has 26 (soon to be 27), TMC has 13, YSRCP has 11, AAP has 10, DMK has 10, and BJD has 9. Several smaller parties and independents also hold seats. To pass its bills, the Modi government will need support from its allies, independents, and possibly neutral members. AIADMK’s four MPs, for instance, might support BJP, as could YSRCP’s Jagan Mohan Reddy, who has expressed unconditional support for NDA. However, BJD’s Naveen Patnaik has refused to support BJP in both Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.

Anticipated Challenges and Strategies

Just as Rahul Gandhi stirred up the Lok Sabha, similar disruptions are expected in Rajya Sabha. If BJP manages to re-nominate the four recently retired members, it might ease the passage of bills. Despite the challenges, the BJP has strategies in place, but timing and favorable conditions will be crucial.

What do you think will be the biggest challenge for the Modi government in the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in 2024? Do you believe the BJP will manage to secure the support of neutral members and smaller parties? Share your thoughts in the comments below!